If you have cash, gloomy retail outlook means good buys
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Americans have slammed their wallets shut since the financial meltdown, and the future is looking downright scary for stores across the country and the U.S. economy.
Best Buy Co., a key shopping destination for the holiday season, slashed its earnings forecast Wednesday, Nov. 12, and said "seismic" changes in consumer behavior have created "the most difficult climate" it had seen in its 42 years.
Shoppers from the well-heeled to the low-income have cut back as they worry about shriveling retirement funds and job security.
For years, consumers tapped into inflated home equity and used credit cards to finance their spending. Now those spigots are shut off.
Because retailers are looking at a brutal holiday season, shoppers who have money to spend will find some extremely good buys.
Some stores make as much as 40 percent of their yearly profits during the holiday season, and the outlook for this year's is growing even darker. For toy merchants, that figure is up to 50 percent.
Retailers built inventory based on modest holiday expectations during the summer. Then came the meltdown. Consumers stopped buying, leaving retailers overstocked even after adjusting their orders.
As a result, stores have been cutting prices far earlier than usual to try to draw shoppers in and save the season. In trying to turn their inventory into cash, many have pushed up sales typically reserved for the day after Thanksgiving.
Tod Marks, a senior editor at Consumer Reports, said consumers should consider buying clothing early in the shopping season while there are plenty of sizes and colors.
But waiting to buy electronics might pay off because if sales of items such as flat-screen TVs or computers are slow, retailers may cut prices closer to the holidays to clear inventory.
Online shoppers can expect the same bargains by hunting for special promotions, coupons and deals. In addition, a majority of retailers plan to offer free shipping this year, according to Shop.org, a division of the National Retail Federation.
A word of warning — don't expect the usual after-holiday bargains. The smaller inventories should result in fewer items needing to be unloaded at clearance prices.


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